Businesses Stay Optimistic Despite Credit Strain and Year-End Softening – Bank of Uganda Survey Taken together, the numbers suggest an economy that still believes in its own momentum, but is carefully rationing risk. Businesses are planning, ordering and looking ahead — yet holding back on investment and hiring until financing conditions improve. How quickly optimism turns into expansion will depend less on sentiment, and more on whether credit becomes cheaper and easier to access in the months ahead.

Ugandan businesses maintained a broadly optimistic outlook through 2025, supported by steady order flows and firm expectations for the near term, even as credit conditions tightened and confidence eased toward the end of the year. The overall business confidence index averaged 58.3, remaining comfortably above the 50-point optimism threshold. Sentiment climbed to 59.5 in May, then slipped through the final quarter, reaching 56.2 in November before edging up to 57.2 in December. Future expectations outpace present conditions Businesses reported modestly positive operating conditions, generally in the mid-50s, while expectations for the next three months consistently remained stronger. Forward-looking confidence peaked…