The Government of Uganda has sought to reassure the public over fuel availability, stating that the country has sufficient petroleum stocks to last until the end of April 2026, even as concerns mount over price escalation and potential supply disruptions.
The statement comes amid the ongoing war between Iran and Israel, involving the United States, which has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global transit route that handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply.
In a press statement dated March 30, 2026, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, together with the Uganda National Oil Company Limited (UNOC), said Uganda’s inland fuel supply chain remains stable and that available stocks, alongside confirmed incoming shipments, are enough to guarantee continuity of supply in the short term.
The statement comes against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have affected the passage of crude oil and petroleum product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints.
Uganda, which depends on imported petroleum products, has in recent days faced growing speculation on social media about the possibility of fuel shortages. But authorities said those claims are inaccurate and risk triggering unnecessary panic.
Last week, the Minister cautioned oil marketing companies against unjustified pump price increases, emphasizing that the government is closely monitoring market behavior.
As of March 27, 2026, Uganda’s fuel stock levels stood at about 81 million litres of petrol, 80 million litres of diesel, and approximately 18.5 million litres of Jet A-1. Government said these volumes are currently available for distribution to Uganda and are sufficient to meet short-term national demand.
In terms of stock cover, the available volumes translate into approximately 22 days of cover for petrol, 23 days for diesel, and 30 days for Jet A-1. According to the statement, this means the existing stocks are enough to take the country to the end of April 2026.
The government also disclosed that additional confirmed fuel cargoes are scheduled to arrive from the end of March through April 2026, mainly through the Port of Mombasa in Kenya, with the supplies specifically destined for Uganda. Officials said the confirmed vessel deliveries indicate that the supply chain remains favorable despite the wider global uncertainty.
These planned imports are expected to substantially reinforce the country’s fuel buffer. The ministry and UNOC said Uganda expects to access an additional 195 million litres of petrol, 155 million litres of diesel, and 24 million litres of Jet A-1 from the beginning of April 2026.
Those incoming quantities would provide an additional 52 days of stock cover for petrol, 44 days for diesel, and 39 days for Jet A-1, according to the statement.
Beyond Kenya’s Mombasa corridor, the government said the supplies will also be complemented through Tanzania using the ports of Tanga, Dar-es-Salaam, and Mtwara. The use of multiple ports, officials said, is intended to enhance security of supply and reduce vulnerability to disruption along any single route.
The statement underscores an increasingly diversified import strategy aimed at shielding Uganda from geopolitical shocks and logistical bottlenecks in international oil markets.
The government attributed the continued supply stability to the role of UNOC’s supply partner, which it said has a strong presence in alternative supply sources around the world, away from the troubled Middle East.
This, authorities said, has helped secure Uganda’s fuel needs even as conflict in one of the world’s most sensitive oil-producing regions continues to unsettle the market.
Officials said the continued availability of product should reassure major consumers and sectors that are heavily dependent on petroleum supplies, including the transportation sector, the aviation industry, the business community, and the wider public.
“We therefore wish to reassure the key business partners including the transportation sector, aviation industry, the business community, and general public that Uganda’s fuel supply remains secure, stable, and continuous despite the ongoing Middle East conflict,” the statement said.
However, while the government insists that supply remains stable, it cautioned that this does not fully insulate the country from broader market pressures.
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development said it is continuing to monitor other key variables that could influence pump prices, particularly foreign exchange movements and international oil prices.
That means consumers and businesses may still face price volatility at the pump even in the absence of physical shortages, depending on how global crude prices behave and how the Uganda shilling performs against major trading currencies.
UNOC, working under the guidance of the ministry, said it remains in close coordination with its supply partner to ensure continuity of fuel deliveries and to preserve what authorities described as Uganda’s demonstrated supply resilience amid global uncertainty.
“The Government of Uganda remains fully committed to safeguarding national energy security and ensuring a consistent and reliable supply of petroleum products across the country,” the statement added.
At the same time, the government used the statement to directly challenge what it called “misrepresentations” circulating on social media.
It said the information being shared online is not factual and appears intended to cause undue panic and create room for possible market exploitation.
That warning is likely aimed at discouraging panic buying, speculative price hikes and misinformation-driven disruptions in the domestic market at a time when public concern over international supply shocks is rising.
The latest government update is therefore designed to send two messages at once: first, that Uganda currently has enough fuel in the system and more is on the way; and second, that while physical supply is secure for now, international developments could still affect domestic pricing.
With 81 million litres of petrol, 80 million litres of diesel, and 18.5 million litres of Jet A-1 already available, and a further 195 million litres of petrol, 155 million litres of diesel, and 24 million litres of Jet A-1 expected from early April, the government is projecting a relatively stable short- to medium-term fuel outlook.
Africa Takes The Stage: From Raw Supply To Brand OwnershipFor businesses, transport operators, airlines and consumers, the immediate implication is that Uganda is not facing an imminent fuel shortage.
But the longer-term picture will depend on how the Middle East conflict evolves, how global oil markets respond, and whether exchange rate pressures intensify in the weeks ahead.
Regional Pressure Mounts as African Economies Adjust to Fuel Shock
Across Africa, however, emerging data and market signals suggest that while Uganda’s supply remains stable for now, several countries are already experiencing significant strain as the global oil disruption feeds into domestic markets.
According to analysis by Mwango Capital, an East African-based financial research firm, governments, airlines, and businesses across the continent are adopting a mix of emergency measures ranging from price adjustments to demand suppression and supply rationing.
In East Africa, Kenya has already seen fuel-related pressure spill into the aviation sector, with Kenya Airways and FlySafair introducing immediate fuel surcharges of up to $90 per ticket as jet fuel costs surge to account for as much as 55% of operating expenses.
Airlines are now requiring tickets to be issued within short timeframes to lock in prices, reflecting volatility in fuel costs.
At the same time, Ethiopian Airlines has adjusted its operational strategy by pivoting flights away from Middle East hubs such as Dubai and Doha, instead focusing on Europe and Asia routes to maintain profitability.
The airline is reportedly offsetting losses estimated at $13.5 million per week from disrupted routes.
Within the downstream market, Kenya’s government has moved to counter hoarding, with Energy Cabinet Secretary Davis Chirchir Wandayi directing fuel marketers to release stocks amid accusations of opportunistic withholding.
Despite official assurances that reserves are adequate, retail-level disruptions have already emerged, with Vivo Energy (Shell Kenya) confirming temporary stock-outs at some service stations due to surging demand.
Elsewhere in the region, governments are increasingly taking a firmer regulatory stance. In Uganda, authorities have already warned of prosecution for price exploitation, signaling concern over potential market abuse as supply tightens.
Beyond East Africa, the pressure is even more pronounced.
In Southern Africa, South Africa has reported panic buying and diesel rationing, with some fuel stations limiting purchases to 80 litres per customer, while agricultural suppliers warn of a major threat to winter crop planting due to rising input costs.
Authorities have also warned fuel retailers against withholding supplies to benefit from anticipated price increases, describing such practices as illegal.
In West Africa, Nigeria is experiencing sharp price adjustments following the removal of foreign exchange controls.
Petrol prices have surged toward N1,500 per litre, driven by a weakening naira and high global crude prices hovering above $110 per barrel.
With subsidies largely eliminated, importers are now fully exposed to market rates, intensifying domestic price pressures.
Meanwhile, some governments are implementing aggressive demand-side controls.
In North Africa, Egypt has introduced sweeping energy-saving measures, including early closure of shops, restaurants, and malls, reduced street lighting, and mandatory work-from-home days for public sector employees.
The country’s fuel import bill has reportedly more than doubled since January, reflecting the scale of the shock.
Other countries are turning to substitution strategies. Zimbabwe, for instance, has increased ethanol blending in petrol from 5% to 20% and removed certain fuel import taxes in a bid to stretch available supply, though analysts warn of potential pricing and engine compatibility implications.
In more extreme cases, the crisis is spilling into power supply. South Sudan has begun electricity rationing in Juba, introducing daily rotational blackouts as fuel shortages affect power generation, highlighting the vulnerability of oil-dependent electricity systems.
Corporate responses are also emerging. In Ethiopia, large institutions such as the Ethio Engineering Group have begun cutting fuel allocations, promoting carpooling, and shifting to virtual meetings, signaling early-stage adaptation to sustained supply constraints.
The Mwango Capital analysis highlights a diverging continental picture: while Uganda is currently benefiting from secured supply lines and forward planning, many African economies are already grappling with the first-round effects of the global oil disruption, ranging from price spikes and logistical bottlenecks to rationing and policy intervention.
For Uganda, the implication is clear. While physical fuel availability remains stable in the short term, regional trends suggest that price pressures, behavioral shifts, and market volatility could intensify if the global situation persists.
