UMEME’s Share Price Surge: What is the Market Beginning to Price In? UMEME’s rising share price suggests the market may be looking beyond the expired concession to the unresolved London arbitration. As uncertainty gives way to possibility, investors appear to be pricing in compensation, balance-sheet recovery, and a settlement outcome that could redefine UMEME’s post-concession future.

When UMEME’s concession ended in March last year, the market assumed finality. Power lines would keep running, but value, many believed, had gone with the concession. The share price, according to an analysis from Crested Capital, at UGX142, told that story clearly of a company at the end of its road. But then came an arbitration, which perse, is not an epilogue, but opened a second chapter. In June last year, Umeme escalated a $292m compensation claim against the government of Uganda in a London arbitration. Weeks of talks had failed to end the stalemate over compensation for unrecovered assets…