A November 2025 RMB white paper titled Continent at a Crossroads has warned that Africa is entering a decisive decade. The choices governments, firms, and regional blocs make will determine whether the continent turns its advantages into broad prosperity or falls back into familiar traps.
The study is grounded in 47 leadership interviews and a survey of more than 2,300 respondents. It frames Africa’s outlook through nine linked forces, from governance and integration to demographics, technology, and geopolitics.
The paper’s most consistent finding is that governance is the single biggest constraint on Africa’s economic transformation.
Interviewees repeatedly point to weak institutions, corruption, and unpredictable regulation as barriers to competitiveness and investment.
It argues that policies often fail not because they are poorly designed but because implementation is fragile.
The report links better governance to higher growth. It warns that persistent corruption widens inequality and drains resources that could finance development.
On regional integration, RMB describes the African Continental Free Trade Area as a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity. It aims to build scale, grow intra-African trade, and strengthen Africa’s bargaining power globally.
However, it says the promise is still being undermined by slow, fragmented execution. This is worsened by low intra-African trade, non-tariff barriers, customs frictions, and weak infrastructure. Additionally, protectionist instincts have kept AfCFTA from becoming fully realized.
The report presents demographics as Africa’s greatest asset and its greatest risk. The continent’s youthful, fast-growing population could become a powerful dividend for production, consumption, and innovation. But without rapid job creation and tradable skills, the youth bulge could translate into disaffection and instability.
Therefore, the report notes that respondents stress adaptability and the need to align human capital with future markets.
Technology is identified as the central lever for leapfrogging. RMB argues that digital connectivity, mobile platforms, and emerging tools such as AI can compress development timelines and expand opportunities. This is possible only if countries expand access, invest in digital public infrastructure, and train talent to use these systems productively.
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The paper also finds that Africa’s role in global geopolitics is rising. This is driven by critical minerals, strategic location, and a stronger voice in multilateral forums, including the African Union’s G20 seat.
But it warns that heightened interest from major powers is a double-edged sword. Without unity and strategic negotiation, Africa risks reproducing dependency rather than building agency.
To show what is at stake, RMB outlines three scenarios for 2035.
The best-case path, “Prosperity through solidarity,” assumes stronger institutions and deeper integration. It also includes productive use of resources for green industrialisation, and broad-based inclusion.
A middle path, “Two-speed Africa,” foresees pockets of strong growth alongside widening inequality.
The worst-case, “Old habits, opportunities lost,” imagines stalled reforms and missed demographic dividends. It depicts a continent that remains fragmented despite its potential.
Overall, the report’s message is that Africa’s future is not pre-written.
The continent has leverage in people, markets, and minerals. However, prosperity hinges on governance that delivers, AfCFTA that works in practice, and technology and skills that scale opportunity fast enough to keep pace with population growth.
