NCBA Shares Surge as Standard Bank’s Two-Year Courtship Nears the Finish Line Standard Bank’s two-year pursuit of NCBA Group reaches its near climax, setting the stage for one of Kenya’s biggest banking mergers in history.

Shares of NCBA Group Plc have hit an all-time high of KSh 75.25, rising 8.27 percent from KSh 69.50, after confirmation that Africa’s largest lender, Standard Bank Group Ltd., is in advanced talks to acquire the Kenyan bank — a deal that could dramatically reshape the structure and ownership of Kenya’s banking sector.

According to Bloomberg, the Johannesburg-based banking giant, which holds a 75 percent stake in Nairobi-listed Stanbic Holdings Plc, has already received internal approvals to engage NCBA in buyout negotiations.

If completed, the merger would create Kenya’s third-largest lender by assets, with a combined balance sheet of approximately KSh 1.1 trillion ($8.5 billion) — ranking only behind Equity Group Holdings Plc and KCB Group Plc.

A Two-Year Courtship Comes to a Head

Sources who spoke exclusively to CEO East Africa Magazine have confirmed that the transaction is in its final phase, with due diligence well underway and regulatory consultations ongoing.

The relationship between the two lenders traces back to 2023, when then Standard Bank East Africa Regional Chief Executive Patrick Mweheire first hinted in an interview that the group was “open to strategic partnerships and acquisitions in Kenya” to accelerate its regional growth.

According to a senior official familiar with the matter, “These talks have been two years in the making — structured, deliberate, and aligned at board level. Both sides now see convergence in timing, valuation, and strategy.”

While NCBA CEO John Gachora and Stanbic CEO Joshua Oigara have not publicly commented, insiders confirm the two boards are “aligned on intent,” with a goal to conclude the transaction within months.

Investor Euphoria: Market Bets on a Mega Merger

The news has electrified the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE).
As Business Daily reported, NCBA’s shares have surged over 70 percent in the past year, valuing the lender at KSh 125 billion, while Stanbic’s stock has also gained 63 percent in the same period.

“The recent rally in NCBA’s share price shows investors are betting the deal will happen,” Maureen Kirigua, senior analyst at Emerging & Frontier Capital LLP, told Bloomberg.

“If Standard Bank moves forward with the takeover, it could shake up competition among Tier I banks, especially when you compare the asset sizes of the Kenyan standalone entities.”

Stanbic’s brief statement to investors maintained, “Standard Bank does not comment on market speculation. Any developments regarding future growth opportunities will always be communicated through appropriate channels.”

Strategic Ambition: From Organic Growth to Bold Expansion

The deal underscores Standard Bank’s shift from organic to acquisition-led growth in East Africa.

As Bloomberg noted, the group’s current focus is on “becoming a top-three player in every market where it operates,” with East Africa now at the center of that ambition.

“They know the market, which is a benefit,” said Adrienne Damant, analyst at Avior Capital Markets. “It will now come down to not overpaying for the bank.”

With assets of $166 billion (KSh 21.4 trillion) as of December 2024 — larger than Kenya’s GDP of KSh 16.1 trillion — Standard Bank possesses the financial capacity to comfortably finance the NCBA acquisition and absorb integration costs without strain.

A High-Stakes Deal for Kenya’s Financial Elite

The proposed buyout also involves some of Kenya’s most prominent business families.

According to Business Daily, the Ndegwa family, heirs of former Central Bank Governor Philip Ndegwa, owns a 14.94 percent stake in NCBA worth about KSh 19.3 billion, while the family of founding President Jomo Kenyatta holds 13.2 percent, valued at KSh 17 billion.

A successful acquisition would see one of Kenya’s most storied, locally owned banks — the product of the 2019 merger between Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA) and NIC Bank — move under the control of Africa’s largest banking group.

It would also mark the return of a multinational lender to Kenya’s top three ranks, a space long dominated by homegrown champions like Equity, KCB, and Co-operative Bank.

Why NCBA is an Attractive Target

NCBA’s appeal lies in its digital dominance and strong dividend record.
The bank has paid KSh 31.2 billion in dividends over the past five years, including KSh 9.06 billion last year alone.

Its M-Shwari platform, co-developed with Safaricom, remains one of Africa’s most successful mobile lending and savings products — reaching millions across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda.

For Standard Bank, this acquisition would instantly expand its digital footprint and open deeper access to mass-market and retail customers, especially in underserved rural areas.

Regulatory Backdrop: A Perfect Window for Consolidation

The potential merger aligns neatly with the Central Bank of Kenya’s consolidation drive, following its recent decision to raise minimum capital requirements tenfold.

Analysts say this will trigger a wave of mergers and acquisitions over the next decade as banks seek scale and resilience.

“Once that is locked in, they may be setting the stage for a broader set of acquisitions up to 2027 or even 2035,” noted one Nairobi-based banking analyst quoted by Bloomberg.

Both Stanbic and NCBA are well above the new thresholds, positioning them advantageously in this evolving regulatory landscape.

Outlook: A New Chapter in East African Banking

If completed, the merger will redefine Kenya’s financial hierarchy and cement Standard Bank’s dominance in East Africa.

The combined institution will command close to KSh 1.1 trillion in assets, rivaling the size and influence of Equity and KCB.

The official announcement is expected before the end of the first quarter of 2026, subject to final valuation and regulatory approval.

“This is a deal two years in the making,” a source close to the negotiations told CEO East Africa Magazine. “It represents patience, strategy, and the natural evolution of Africa’s biggest banking ambitions.”