Uganda’s two largest mobile network operators, Airtel Uganda and MTN Uganda, are estimated to have lost between UGX 22.8 billion and UGX 24 billion in data revenues following the four-day nationwide internet shutdown.
The shutdown that was effected at 6 pm on Tuesday last week and lasted until late Saturday, highlights the rising financial cost of digital disruptions as data services become central to telecoms’ business models.
The estimate is based on the operators’ most recent publicly available financial results and focuses strictly on data revenues, which are directly affected when internet access is restricted.
To avoid overstating the impact, the analysis applies a conservative industry benchmark that recognises that not all disrupted data usage is permanently lost.
Airtel Uganda’s exposure
Airtel Uganda’s 2025 half-year financial results show how dependent its business has become on data services.
As of the end of the first half of 2025, Airtel reported total revenues of UGX 1.08 trillion over 182 days, with data accounting for about 50% of this total. This places Airtel’s half-year data revenues at roughly UGX 540 billion.
Based on this performance, Airtel’s data business was generating about UGX 2.9 billion per day at the time of the shutdown.
Over four days, this translated into approximately UGX 11.6 billion in data revenues disrupted by the internet blackout.
However, telecom industry experience shows that a portion of data usage is postponed and resumes once connectivity is restored.
To reflect this, the analysis applies a conservative benchmark of 70%, widely used in shutdown impact assessments, to estimate the share of data revenues that are permanently unrecoverable.
On this basis, Airtel’s likely lost data revenues from the shutdown amount to about UGX 8 billion.
MTN Uganda’s exposure
MTN Uganda’s data losses are assessed using its three-quarter performance. The company reported UGX 762.8 billion in data revenues over the first three quarters of 2025, a period spanning 273 days.
Data revenues during the period grew by 30.2%, supported by rising data customers, higher usage per subscriber, and rapid expansion in home broadband services.
Using this three-quarter run rate, MTN’s data business was generating about UGX 2.8 billion per day. The four-day shutdown, therefore, disrupted around UGX 11.2 billion in MTN’s data revenues.
Applying the same conservative 70% benchmark to estimate permanently lost usage, MTN is estimated to have lost about UGX 7.8 billion in data revenues as a direct result of the shutdown.
Combined impact
Taken together, the four-day internet shutdown is estimated to have disrupted about UGX 22.8 billion in gross data revenues across Airtel and MTN, based on their reported revenue run rates at the time of the outage.
After adjusting for deferred usage using the conservative benchmark, the likely unrecoverable data revenue loss for the two operators combined is estimated at UGX 15.9 billion.
Forward-looking Exposure: UGX 24 billion loss at full-year scale projection
Looking ahead, a forward projection based on full-year data revenue trajectories for the two telecoms suggests that the economic exposure might even be higher.
If we are to measure the estimated full-year data revenues for 2025 based on the past 2024 annual performance, then Uganda’s telecom sector is estimated to have lost about UGX 24 billion in data revenues following last week’s four-day nationwide internet shutdown.
Stanbic Bank CEO Mumba Kalifungwa Delivers UGX 591 billion Profit in First YearAirtel Uganda’s 2024 financial results highlight the scale of this transformation.
The company reported that data revenues grew by 25.3% to UGX 899.8 billion in 2024, driven by increased demand for data services.
Based on this growth trajectory, Airtel’s data revenues in 2025 are estimated at about UGX 1.128 trillion if similar momentum is sustained.
At that level, the operator would be generating roughly UGX 3.1 billion per day from data services.
A four-day internet shutdown would therefore translate into an estimated revenue loss of approximately UGX 12.4 billion for Airtel Uganda alone.
MTN Uganda recorded similarly strong growth in its data business.
The operator reported that data revenue increased by 30.5% to UGX 811.8 billion in 2024. If that growth rate is maintained into 2025, MTN’s data revenues are projected to reach around UGX 1.06 trillion.
This implies average daily data earnings of about UGX 2.9 billion, meaning a four-day shutdown would result in an estimated data revenue loss of roughly UGX 11.6 billion.
Combined, Airtel and MTN are projected to generate close to UGX 6 billion per day in data revenues in 2025.
On that basis, the four-day internet shutdown likely wiped out about UGX 24 billion in direct data revenues across the two dominant operators, making it one of the most significant short-term revenue shocks to the sector in recent years.
Beyond the immediate revenue impact, internet shutdowns also carry longer-term risks that are more difficult to quantify.
These include disrupted consumer usage patterns, reduced confidence in the reliability of digital services, higher customer care and compensation costs, and potential pressure on subscriber retention.
The wider economy also bears the cost, as small businesses, online traders, fintech platforms, and digital content creators lose productive hours and customer access, often with limited ability to recover lost activity.
As telecom operators continue to invest heavily in network expansion and capacity to meet surging demand for data, the financial implications of service disruptions are becoming increasingly material.
The estimated UGX 24 billion data revenue loss from the four-day shutdown underscores that internet disruptions are no longer merely a technical or political issue, but a growing economic risk with direct consequences for corporate performance, investment confidence, and Uganda’s broader digital transformation agenda.
David Birungi, the Airtel Uganda Public Relations Lead, said that the biggest impact of the shutdown affected the telecom’s clients and those who depend on the internet to connect to people and opportunities.
This, however, he noted, was contextual in nature, considering the telecom had a duty to comply with the directives of the regulator.
“The impact of an outage on the productivity of our customers is way higher than any revenue projections anyone can think of,” he said.
Andrew Bugembe, the MTN Uganda Chief Financial Officer, told the CEO Magazine through a telephone interview that the telecom was still assessing the full impact of the internet shutdown, and considering that some services, such as social media, are not yet fully open.
