From July Oversupply to September Windfall: The Price Puzzle in Uganda’s Coffee Coffee remains one of Uganda’s biggest sources of foreign exchange, bringing in $2.25 billion in the 12 months to July, a 59% jump from the previous year.

Uganda’s coffee season is unfolding in two very different chapters. In July, the country shipped nearly a million bags, the second-highest monthly volume on record. That oversupply of beans boosted foreign exchange earnings but also dragged down the average price per kilogramme. Because supply had flooded the market, buyers were bargaining harder, and the mix shifted toward lower-value grades of Robusta. By September, the picture had flipped. A spell of dry weather in Brazil threatened global supplies, and a stronger Brazilian currency discouraged farmers there from selling. Those two forces combined to drive futures prices higher. Uganda, though far from…