Will the Acquisition of Standard Chartered’s Retail & Wealth Business Redraw the Race for Uganda’s No.2 Bank Between Absa and Centenary?

For much of the last two decades, Uganda’s banking hierarchy appeared firmly established.

Stanbic Bank dominated the summit, while Standard Chartered Bank comfortably occupied the No.2 position, backed by its strong corporate banking franchise, affluent clientele and multinational pedigree. Barclays Bank Uganda — now Absa Bank Uganda — largely held the No.3 spot, while Crane Bank emerged as a fast-rising indigenous disruptor aggressively expanding across the country.

Centenary Bank, despite its strong reputation in microfinance and rural banking, was still viewed largely as a retail and community-focused institution rather than a serious challenger to Uganda’s banking elite.

In 2011, the numbers reflected that reality. Standard Chartered held customer deposits of UGX1.38 trillion compared to Centenary’s UGX694 billion, while Barclays stood ahead of Centenary with UGX906 billion in deposits. In assets, Standard Chartered controlled nearly UGX2 trillion, almost double Centenary’s UGX944 billion. 

But Uganda’s banking sector was quietly beginning to change.

Between 2012 and 2016, the market experienced one of the most significant structural transitions in its history. Retail and mass-market banking began overtaking traditional elite corporate banking as the industry’s primary growth engine. Financial inclusion expanded rapidly, branch networks widened, agency banking gained momentum and indigenous institutions increasingly captured Uganda’s fast-growing SME and retail customer base.

No bank benefited more from this shift than Centenary Bank.

While multinational banks remained concentrated around urban and corporate banking, Centenary aggressively deepened its reach into rural Uganda, agriculture financing, SACCO banking and SME lending. Deposits surged from UGX818 billion in 2012 to UGX1.63 trillion by 2016, allowing the bank to overtake Barclays (Absa) and rapidly close the gap on Standard Chartered. 

Crane Bank, Market Disruption and the Great Shift

At the same time, another force was reshaping the market: Crane Bank.

Founded by businessman Sudhir Ruparelia, Crane Bank became one of Uganda’s most aggressive banking disruptors, rapidly expanding branches, retail lending and market visibility. By the mid-2010s, it had become a major competitor to Barclays, dfcu and Centenary, fundamentally challenging the old multinational banking order.

Then came the defining shock.

In 2016, Bank of Uganda controversially took over Crane Bank before facilitating the transfer of some of its assets and liabilities to dfcu Bank. The collapse triggered a major redistribution of customers, deposits and market confidence across the sector. dfcu Bank immediately emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries, with its deposits jumping from UGX1.13 trillion in 2016 to UGX1.99 trillion (+75%) in 2017 following the Crane Bank acquisition.

Over the years that followed, Centenary emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of Uganda’s retail banking revolution. Standard Chartered, meanwhile, gradually narrowed its focus toward corporate and affluent banking, reducing its appetite for mass-market expansion.

The market hierarchy steadily began shifting between 2017 and 2020.

By 2017, Centenary had effectively caught and marginally overtaken Standard Chartered in deposits, holding UGX1.91 trillion against Standard Chartered’s UGX1.90 trillion. By 2018 and 2019, however, Centenary had firmly consolidated the No.2 position, growing deposits to UGX2.28 trillion and later UGX2.53 trillion respectively, ahead of both Standard Chartered and Absa. 

The same pattern increasingly emerged in lending. By 2018, Centenary’s loan book had risen to UGX1.53 trillion, overtaking Standard Chartered’s UGX1.31 trillion and Absa’s UGX1.18 trillion. By 2020, Centenary’s loans had expanded further to nearly UGX2 trillion, firmly establishing the bank as Uganda’s dominant indigenous retail lender. 

In assets too, Centenary steadily climbed the rankings. In 2017, Standard Chartered still held assets of UGX2.81 trillion compared to Centenary’s UGX2.71 trillion. But by 2018, Centenary had overtaken Standard Chartered with UGX3.17 trillion in assets versus Standard Chartered’s UGX2.92 trillion, and the gap continued widening thereafter. By 2020, Centenary’s assets had crossed UGX4.5 trillion, significantly ahead of both Standard Chartered and Absa. 

Profitability trends also reflected the broader market transition. Between 2017 and 2020, Centenary consistently outperformed Absa and increasingly challenged Standard Chartered’s historical earnings dominance, with profits rising from UGX100 billion in 2017 to UGX161 billion by 2020. Standard Chartered, meanwhile, experienced increasingly volatile profitability despite maintaining a strong corporate banking franchise. 

By 2020, the hierarchy had dramatically changed.

Stanbic remained comfortably ahead, but Centenary had emerged as Uganda’s clear No.2 bank across deposits, lending and assets, driven by the rapid rise of retail and SME banking. Deposits had grown to UGX3.14 trillion, loans to UGX1.96 trillion, assets to UGX4.5 trillion and profits to UGX161 billion. 

Absa, meanwhile, remained firmly within Uganda’s top banking tier and was increasingly competing for the No.3 position across several major market indicators after years of relative stagnation. By 2020, the bank ranked fourth in deposits and assets behind Stanbic, Centenary and Standard Chartered, while also holding a top-four position in lending and income. It held UGX2.36 trillion in deposits, UGX1.31 trillion in loans, UGX3.54 trillion in assets and UGX40.7 billion in profits, maintaining a strong corporate and affluent banking franchise even as Centenary increasingly dominated the mass-market segment. Standard Chartered’s position had weakened considerably, while dfcu’s post-Crane Bank surge had begun moderating.

Absa’s Big Bet

Now, another potential turning point may be emerging.

Absa Bank Uganda’s planned acquisition of Standard Chartered Bank Uganda’s Wealth and Retail Banking business, announced on October 24, 2025, could become one of the most consequential banking transactions in recent years — not merely because of the balances involved, but because of what it could mean for the No.2 bank position in Uganda. 

According to sources close to the transaction, the deal is expected to bring approximately UGX900 billion in customer deposits and another UGX300 billion in loans onto Absa’s balance sheet. Speaking during Absa Bank Uganda’s 2025 results release this April 2026, Absa Bank Uganda’s Managing Director, David Wandera, indicated that the transaction is expected to close this year.

If completed successfully, the acquisition could materially alter the competitive landscape.

By 2025, Centenary held customer deposits of UGX5.27 trillion compared to Absa’s UGX4.66 trillion. However, adding Standard Chartered’s estimated retail and wealth balances would immediately lift Absa’s adjusted deposits to roughly UGX5.56 trillion — potentially pushing it ahead of Centenary, at least on paper.

But the implications could extend far beyond a one-off balance sheet jump.

More importantly, Absa is already growing faster in deposits. Between 2021 and 2025, Absa’s customer deposits expanded at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8%, significantly ahead of Centenary’s 13.5%. If both banks sustain those trajectories post-acquisition, the gap could widen even further in Absa’s favour.

Using current growth assumptions, Centenary’s deposits could rise from UGX5.27 trillion in 2025 to nearly UGX6 trillion in 2026. However, Absa — after incorporating the additional UGX900 billion from Standard Chartered — would begin from an adjusted base of about UGX5.56 trillion. Applying its historical 17.8% CAGR would potentially push Absa’s deposits to around UGX6.5 trillion within a year, placing it materially ahead of Centenary in deposits for the first time in years.

Lending, however, presents a far more difficult battle.

Centenary’s loan book has expanded aggressively, growing from UGX2.25 trillion in 2021 to UGX4.16 trillion in 2025 — a lending CAGR of 16.7%, reinforcing its position as Uganda’s dominant retail and SME lender. Absa’s loans, by comparison, grew from UGX1.31 trillion to UGX2.14 trillion over the same period, representing a slower 13.1% CAGR. Even after absorbing Standard Chartered’s estimated UGX300 billion loan portfolio, Absa’s adjusted lending book would rise to roughly UGX2.44 trillion — still significantly below Centenary’s UGX4.16 trillion.

And if current growth rates persist, the gap could remain substantial. By 2026, Centenary’s loan book could approach UGX4.85 trillion, while Absa’s adjusted portfolio may rise toward UGX2.75 trillion. That means the Standard Chartered transaction could dramatically reshape the deposits race, but lending dominance may remain firmly in Centenary’s hands unless Absa significantly accelerates its retail and SME credit expansion strategy.

The distinction becomes even sharper when viewed through loan-to-deposit ratios — a key measure of how aggressively banks convert customer deposits into lending. By 2025, Centenary’s loans-to-deposits ratio stood at roughly 78.8%, compared to Absa’s 45.9%. In effect, Centenary was deploying a far larger share of its deposit base into credit expansion, reinforcing its dominance in SME and retail lending. Absa, meanwhile, continued operating a more conservative balance sheet despite its growing liability base. This means the Standard Chartered acquisition may significantly strengthen Absa’s funding firepower and transactional scale, but not necessarily translate into immediate lending dominance unless the bank materially increases its credit appetite. Yet with a new Managing Director, David Wandera, and an equally ambitious Group CEO, Kenny Fihla, who has signaled a far more aggressive regional growth posture for Absa across Africa, the bank’s lending appetite too could gradually begin shifting.

Is Uganda’s No.2 Banking Position About to Change Again?

Yet the contrast between the two banks reveals a deeper strategic divergence.

Centenary’s strength lies in scale retail banking — rural penetration, agency banking, SMEs, agriculture finance and a vast mass-market customer base that has steadily powered deposits, lending and customer acquisition over the last decade. Absa’s strategy, meanwhile, increasingly revolves around affluent banking, treasury management, digital banking and high-value transactional relationships.

That is precisely why the Standard Chartered acquisition matters.

The exiting portfolio is expected to bring not only deposits, but also affluent customers, sticky transactional balances and wealth-management relationships that align closely with Absa’s long-term positioning. More importantly, a larger deposit base fundamentally changes a bank’s competitive power. Deposits are the raw material of lending. A stronger liability position gives banks greater capacity to expand credit, price loans more aggressively, deepen corporate relationships and attract even more transactional business across the wider economy.

In banking, lending power often creates commercial gravity.

As banks expand lending, they typically attract salary accounts, supplier ecosystems, SME relationships, trade finance flows, transactional revenues and broader customer loyalty. In effect, stronger deposits can create stronger lending capacity, while stronger lending can generate even larger deposits and new business opportunities in return.

That is where Absa’s long-term bet becomes particularly significant.

Even after absorbing Standard Chartered’s estimated UGX300 billion loan book, Absa would still trail Centenary substantially in loans and advances. However, if the enlarged deposit base materially strengthens Absa’s ability to scale lending over the next several years — particularly in affluent retail, mortgages, SMEs and corporate banking — the competitive gap could narrow faster than current numbers suggest.

Centenary nevertheless retains a major structural advantage. Its lending growth rate continues to outpace Absa’s, underlining the indigenous bank’s dominance in retail and SME credit expansion. Its deep branch network, rural penetration and mass-market positioning remain difficult to replicate quickly.

But if Uganda’s banking history over the last 15 years has shown anything, it is that hierarchies are never permanent.

Standard Chartered once looked untouchable at No.2. Barclays once comfortably outranked Centenary. Crane Bank once appeared unstoppable.

Today, the market is shifting once again.

And Absa’s biggest bet yet may determine whether Uganda’s banking sector is about to witness another major realignment.